I can't find Ed. I _____ he left early today.

• A. Guess
• B. Know
• C. Think
• D. Hope

Answer: (A)

Not having Ed and not finding him invites a tentative inference about what happened. Saying “I guess he left early today” communicates that you’re drawing a quick conclusion based on the information (or lack of Ed) you have at the moment. This fits because you aren’t certain; you’re making an educated guess about his whereabouts. Using “know” would claim certainty you don’t have, and “hope” would express a wish rather than a conclusion about what happened. “Think” could be used, but “guess” best captures the idea of forming a tentative conclusion from partial information.